The stakes are rising as Clemson and Miami head toward a potential ACC Championship Game clash, and FanDuel has updated its odds, making the Tigers slight favorites. Clemson is now a -1.5 point favorite, priced at -115 on the spread and -126 on the moneyline, while the over/under total has been set at 63.5 points. Meanwhile, Miami sits at +105 on the moneyline, underscoring how close this battle could be.
Clemson: Marginal Favorites but Consistent Performers
Clemson comes into this hypothetical matchup as slight favorites, but this isn’t your typical juggernaut Tigers team. A point spread of just -1.5 reflects Clemson's slight edge, and digging into the advanced metrics, it’s clear that they have the tools to make this a tough game for the Hurricanes.
The Tigers' EPA margin of 0.323 ranks second in the ACC, driven by an efficient offense that sits atop the league in Offensive EPA (0.198). With a success rate of 50%, Clemson’s offense has been able to stay on schedule, particularly in the passing game, where they rank 3rd in dropback success rate at 50.5%.
However, it’s not all rosy for Clemson, especially on defense. While their Defensive EPA (-0.125) is strong, their run defense success rate ranks just 29th in the nation, a potential vulnerability Miami could exploit. The Tigers have been stout against the pass (6th in dropback success rate allowed at 34.5%), but their inconsistency in field position (62nd in net field position) could make this a back-and-forth affair.
Miami: Underdogs with Upside
The Hurricanes, priced at +105 on the moneyline, are one of the hottest teams in the ACC, and their metrics suggest they could be more than capable of pulling the upset. Miami boasts an EPA margin of 0.120 (7th in the nation), fueled by a balanced offensive attack. The Hurricanes' rushing EPA (0.120, 7th) and dropback EPA (0.224, 3rd) suggest they can move the ball effectively both on the ground and through the air.
When Miami's offense meets Clemson's defense, it will be strength versus strength. The Tigers rank 35th against the run, allowing -0.053 EPA per rush, but Miami’s ground game is efficient, ranking 7th in the nation in rushing EPA. The Hurricanes are also lethal on early downs, with a 0.279 EPA (4th in the nation), setting up manageable third downs. Speaking of which, Miami converts 60.9% of its third and fourth down opportunities, which leads the nation, a critical factor against Clemson’s defense, which has been vulnerable in this area (44.1% allowed).
Key Matchups to Watch
- Clemson’s Passing Game vs. Miami’s Secondary: Clemson’s 50.5% dropback success rate will face a stiff challenge from Miami’s 8th-ranked pass defense in terms of dropback EPA allowed (-0.115). If the Hurricanes can contain Clemson’s aerial attack, they could tilt the game in their favor.
- Miami’s Efficiency on Early Downs: The Hurricanes excel on early downs, and if they can keep themselves in favorable situations (4th in early downs EPA), they’ll control the tempo of the game. Clemson’s defense, while strong, has struggled on early downs (71st in early downs EPA allowed).
- Field Position Battle: Both teams have struggled with field position, but Miami’s advantage here (33rd in starting field position) could provide them with shorter fields and better scoring opportunities compared to Clemson’s 62nd-ranked net field position.