As Rivalry Week heats up, all eyes turn to Clemson, where the Tigers will host the South Carolina Gamecocks in a matchup loaded with stakes. Both teams have College Football Playoff aspirations, but the path forward is razor-thin. Here’s how the numbers break down for this weekend’s clash in Death Valley.
Game Details
- Matchup: South Carolina (9-2) vs. Clemson (10-1)
- When: Saturday, Nov. 30, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
- TV: ESPN
What’s at Stake?
Clemson, currently the first team out of the playoff bracket, must secure a victory and hope for a Miami loss to bolster its postseason case. Meanwhile, South Carolina has rattled off five straight wins and needs a triumph at Clemson, coupled with help elsewhere, to keep its playoff dreams alive.
Betting Lines and Key Numbers
- Spread: Clemson -2.5
- Total Points: 49.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
- Moneyline: Clemson -132, South Carolina +110
Clemson enters as a narrow favorite, but this rivalry has a reputation for chaos. The Tigers have 57% odds to win according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), but South Carolina is no pushover, claiming victory in 43% of the model’s simulations.
Analytics Breakdown
Projected Score: Clemson by 2.6
The FPI model, which simulates games 20,000 times, gives Clemson a slight edge on its home turf. The Tigers are projected to win by just over a field goal, making this a toss-up by betting standards.
Team Strengths:
- Clemson:
- A balanced attack led by a surging offense and a stout defense ranked 11th nationally in efficiency.
- A 35.9% chance of making the playoff, third-best in the ACC.
- South Carolina:
- A dominant defensive unit that has keyed their five-game win streak.
- A 20.1% chance of making the playoff, fifth in the SEC.
Betting Trends:
- 52% of bettors back Clemson to cover the spread at home.
- 48% of wagers favor South Carolina to either win outright or keep the margin within a field goal.
Key Matchups to Watch
Clemson Offense vs. South Carolina Defense:The Tigers have relied on precision passing and a dynamic rushing attack, but they’ll face a Gamecocks defense that ranks among the top 10 nationally in points allowed.
Momentum and Rivalry Factor:Clemson has dominated the rivalry in recent years, but South Carolina pulled off a stunning upset last year, adding more drama to this showdown.
Playoff Picture and Implications
Both teams are vying for a spot in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, but Clemson’s path is slightly more favorable. Currently sitting just outside the bracket, the Tigers would leapfrog teams with a win and some outside help. South Carolina, though further down the pecking order, could catapult into the conversation with a statement victory.